Saudi plays short and long game with OPEC+ production gamble

After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Apr 27, 2021OPEC+ maintains production plan | Wood Mackenzie+3.2%
• Jul 18, 2024OPEC+ will stick to oil production hike plan as upcoming meeting, delegates report-3.6%
• Oct 25, 2018OPEC Should Boost Crude Production at Next Meeting, the IEA Says - Bloomberg-2.1%
• Mar 9, 2022Oil prices tumble after UAE says it wants OPEC to increase production | CNN Business-21.5%
• Jun 1, 2025OPEC+ to Increase Oil Production—Again+4.9%

After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Apr 27, 2021OPEC+ maintains production plan | Wood Mackenzie+4.0%
• Jul 18, 2024OPEC+ will stick to oil production hike plan as upcoming meeting, delegates report-6.4%
• Oct 25, 2018OPEC Should Boost Crude Production at Next Meeting, the IEA Says - Bloomberg-2.0%
• Mar 9, 2022Oil prices tumble after UAE says it wants OPEC to increase production | CNN Business-22.0%
• Jun 1, 2025OPEC+ to Increase Oil Production—Again+6.2%