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LPL Research's midyear outlook expects the 10-year Treasury yield to drift higher near term before ending 2025 between 4.0% and 4.5%. It attributes the tug of war in bonds to economic data versus deficit-driven term premium.
A forecast of higher-for-longer rates supports a firmer dollar and higher financing costs, a generally bearish macro backdrop for commodities, though the effect on feed prices is indirect.
lplmycfo.comLPL ResearchJul 21, 2025After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
