
France's farm ministry raised its soft wheat estimate to 33.1 million tonnes, up from 32.6 million last month and 29% above the drought-hit 2024 crop. It forecast grain maize output would fall 5.6% to 13.9 million tonnes as drought and heat cut yields, and traders are watching a new heatwave near 40 degrees Celsius in southern France.
A larger French and EU wheat crop adds exportable supply and pressures wheat prices lower. A smaller maize crop tightens feed grain supply in Europe and supports corn prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.