OPEC Plus Will Increase Oil Output (Published 2025)

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Jun 1, 2026OPEC Plus, in Symbolic Gesture, to Increase Oil Production+2.9%
• Jul 15, 2020OPEC agrees to ease oil output cut to 7.7 mbpd in Aug.+3.2%
• Feb 1, 2026OPEC+ agrees to keep oil output unchanged-3.1%
• Jul 16, 2020OPEC's balancing act: increasing output against smaller demand+0.6%
• Aug 3, 2025OPEC+ makes another large oil output hike in market share push-4.6%

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Jul 15, 2020OPEC agrees to ease oil output cut to 7.7 mbpd in Aug.+3.8%
• Feb 1, 2026OPEC+ agrees to keep oil output unchanged-1.6%
• Jul 16, 2020OPEC's balancing act: increasing output against smaller demand+1.7%
• Aug 3, 2025OPEC+ makes another large oil output hike in market share push-5.1%
• Oct 31, 2018OPEC oil output rises to highest since 2016 despite Iran - Reuters survey-6.0%