The eight OPEC+ countries met virtually on 3 August 2025 and agreed a production adjustment of 547 thousand barrels per day for September. The group said the phase-out of voluntary cuts may be paused or reversed depending on market conditions.
A larger OPEC+ output increase raises crude supply and tends to lower oil prices, which feeds into diesel, fertilizer and freight costs for feed producers.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.