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The USDA September 12 WASDE cut old-crop rice ending stocks from 88.4 to 82.9 million bushels, still the largest long-grain stocks since 1986. New-crop medium grain production is projected up 10% from 2024, while new-crop long-grain ending stocks stay near 82.4 million bushels.
Large US stocks and higher medium-grain output keep domestic rice supplies ample. Traders need firmer demand before futures can rally.
After 50 past neutral report events, RICE moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.