
World rice prices have changed little recently but remain below early 2018 levels, with demand subdued. USDA's May report showed US and Uruguayan quotes diverging, while Thai, Vietnamese and Indian quotes sit at $371-399/t.
USDA forecasts 2019-20 world rice output slightly below last year's record, with declines expected in China and India.
A slightly smaller projected 2019-20 crop and firm Western Hemisphere quotes offer some support, but subdued demand and ample Asian supplies cap upside. Feed buyers face little pressure from rice.
After 50 past neutral report events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.