
AUD/USD fell to near 0.6540 as the US dollar firmed near a three-month high. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Washington and China would sign a trade deal as soon as the following week, while Australian inflation weighed on RBA easing bets.
A stronger dollar and a US-China trade deal both influence export demand and prices for US soybeans and grains, though the currency move itself is modest.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.