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The US dollar fell to a six-week low on Friday after data showed US job growth came in below expectations in October. The weak report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its December meeting.
A weaker dollar and lower rate expectations typically support dollar-priced commodities and can lift feed commodity prices, while softer US growth may trim demand expectations.
reuters.comGertrude Chavez-DreyfussNov 3, 2023After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 151 past bullish macro events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Soft October payrolls on 2023-11-03 reduced expectations of further Fed tightening, driving the dollar to a six-week low and directly explaining the one-day drop.
