
The US dollar weakened against the euro, yuan and Australian dollar on Monday as optimism over a possible US-China trade deal lifted risk appetite. The PBOC set the yuan midpoint stronger than expected at 7.0881 per dollar, the firmest since October 2024.
Dollar weakness on trade optimism supports dollar-denominated commodity prices and US export competitiveness. The trade-deal hopes are a bullish driver for soybeans and grains.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.