OPEC+ Base Case Scenario Is Small Hike for Now, Delegates Say

After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Aug 30, 2024OPEC+ Leans Toward Proceeding With Output Hike, Delegates Say - Bloomberg-8.9%
• Mar 1, 2026OPEC+ to Weigh Bigger Hike After Iran Strike, Delegates Say+31.0%
• Dec 2, 2021Oil Plunges 4.8% as Russia Is Said to Propose OPEC+ Output Hike - Bloomberg+9.7%
• Feb 17, 2025OPEC+ is not considering delay to April oil supply hike, Novak says-0.4%
• Jun 23, 2018OPEC+ Agrees to Oil-Supply Boost in Victory for Saudis, Russia - Bloomberg+5.1%

After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Aug 30, 2024OPEC+ Leans Toward Proceeding With Output Hike, Delegates Say - Bloomberg-10.8%
• Mar 1, 2026OPEC+ to Weigh Bigger Hike After Iran Strike, Delegates Say+35.6%
• Dec 2, 2021Oil Plunges 4.8% as Russia Is Said to Propose OPEC+ Output Hike - Bloomberg+10.6%
• Feb 17, 2025OPEC+ is not considering delay to April oil supply hike, Novak says-0.0%
• Jun 23, 2018OPEC+ Agrees to Oil-Supply Boost in Victory for Saudis, Russia - Bloomberg+7.6%