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Investors are preparing for possible renewed tightening in US dollar liquidity, with SOFR having spiked to 4.22% after the Fed's October decision. Wells Fargo's Michael Schumacher warned that high-yield currencies such as the real could come under pressure by year-end.
A tighter dollar funding market raises carry-trade costs and could weaken emerging market currencies, which tends to make Brazilian commodity exports cheaper in dollar terms and supportive of export volumes.
valorinternational.globo.comArthur Cagliari, Victor RezendeNov 18, 2025After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
