
An analysis says fed cattle futures for April 2026 have fallen 17% and feeder cattle futures have fallen 21% since September, after record highs. The decline follows tariff reductions, including beef being excluded from reciprocal and Brazil tariffs, and packers gaining leverage over feedlots.
Lower tariffs on imported beef increase supply options and reduce the premium for domestic cattle, pressuring feeder and live cattle prices.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Analysis of the feeder futures decline, citing tariff cuts and packer leverage over feedlots.
Notes deep declines in fed and feeder futures after tariff cuts and increased packer leverage.