A University of Wyoming livestock specialist says the beef industry faces a downtrend that could last a few years due to falling exports and per capita domestic consumption. He sees fundamentals pointing to about $125 per cwt for fat cattle and feedlots only recently near break-even.
Lower export and domestic beef demand points to sustained weakness in fed and feeder cattle prices, which reduces the value of feeder cattle and cattle sold for slaughter.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.