Brazil urea prices rose to $476–488 per tonne CFR, according to Nobel Trading. India bought only about 410,000 tonnes in its October 7 tender against 1.7 million tonnes sought, and a new Indian tender is expected between late October and mid-November.
Firm Brazilian urea and weak Indian buying point to tight nitrogen supply, with a new Indian tender a key upside risk for fertilizer costs that feed into corn production.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.