Reuters reports US ethanol exports are up 20% so far this year, and Brazil could more than double its exports in the 2026/27 season as countries seek alternative fuel supplies during the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Datagro estimates Brazil's exports at 2.2 billion liters next season.
Rising ethanol export demand from both top producers supports corn and cane demand and prices, though the effect depends on how long the Hormuz disruption lasts.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 12 past neutral trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -3.6% to +0.9%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.