IKAR expects Russian high-protein meal exports from sunflower, rapeseed and soybeans to reach a record 4.4 million tons in 2025-26, up from 3.9 million. Domestic demand may be insufficient, and Russia has reached full self-sufficiency in soybeans and soybean meal.
Record Russian meal exports add supply to world protein markets, pressuring soybean and sunflower meal prices. Weak demand for Far Eastern exports could make that pressure worse.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.