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Thailand's Department of Foreign Trade set a 2026 rice export target of 7 million tonnes. Jan-Nov 2025 exports were 7.29 million tonnes, down 21% year on year, and the department cited India's large stock releases as a competitive pressure.
A lower export target and rising Indian competition signal continued pressure on Thai rice export volumes and prices.
After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.