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USDA projects Thai rice output at 20.8 million tonnes in 2021-22 and exports up 31% to about 8 million tonnes. Thai parboiled rice is priced at $395 against Indian parboiled at $370-376.
Expected rebound in Thai exports adds competitive supply to the global rice market, which is bearish for Asian rice export prices, especially Indian parboiled.
After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.