Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Feb 16, 2023In Argentina's drought-hit fields, billion dollar losses and farmers going under-1.3%
• Jul 10, 2025Climate Prediction Center sees 56% chance of ENSO neutral conditions in August-October-1.8%
• Aug 30, 2022UPDATE 1-Agritel ups French wheat crop estimate, sees maize at 21st-century low-2.3%
• Jul 28, 2021Wheat climbs on signs of drought damage in northern U.S. Plains | Financial Post+2.7%
• Oct 22, 2024Mixed end to season informs Rabo crop estimates - Grain Central+0.1%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 68 past bullish weather events, OATS moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.9%), and -0.3% over 20.

• Jul 31, 2023Estimated Crop Yields for Alberta Versus Final Estimates-1.2%
• Oct 25, 2021Cereal and Oat Milk Makers Feel the Crunch From Oats Shortage - Gro Intelligence | Borostos+9.4%
• Jul 30, 2026Heatwaves have taken 9 million tons of cereals from Europe. The losses amount to 2 billion euros.+1.4%
• Oct 29, 2021Oat Prices Reach Record Highs, Economists Aren't Convinced It'll Eat into Corn and Soybean Acres - AgWeb+4.3%
• Jul 17, 2026IGC Reports Heatwaves in Europe Lower 2026/27 Global Cereal Harvest; Soybean and Rice Outlooks Adjusted | Tridge Insights-2.8%