CBOT December oat futures remain near contract highs after US oat production fell about 40% from drought. Canada's crop reportedly shrank 44%, leaving projected stocks at a record low.
With Canada supplying most US oat imports, the shortfall keeps oat prices elevated and may shift plantings toward oats in 2022.
After 68 past bullish weather events, Oats moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.