Rabobank's national estimates for the Australian harvest put wheat at 27.55 million tonnes, barley at 10.37 million tonnes and canola at 4.67 million tonnes. The forecasts reflect dry conditions in South Australia and Victoria, frost damage, and a surprise rise in Western Australian production.
Lower wheat and barley forecasts for the south reduce Australian export supply, which supports prices for feed grains traded internationally.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.