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Oil prices have stayed in a narrow band despite a roughly 15% gain in January, with Brent above $70 a barrel, its highest since last July. Fears of a possible fresh U.S. strike on Iran have been a key support, while rising output from other producers, including key OPEC members, has capped gains.
Tehran has vowed to retaliate against any U.S. strike, including by hitting neighbouring states.
Rising Iran risk premium lifts energy costs for feed producers through diesel, natural gas and fertilizer inputs. Ample OPEC supply limits how far crude can rally without an actual supply disruption.
reuters.comRon BoussoJan 30, 2026After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
