◂ Event Timeline

Mar 1, 2026WEATHERGlobal

Subsurface Equatorial Pacific Looking El Nino-like; Surface and Atmosphere Linger La Nina

Climate Impact Company's February 9 ENSO diagnostic finds subsurface Pacific warming from a second Kelvin wave, which signals El Niño ahead. Surface and atmospheric indicators still show a lingering La Niña, and Niño 3.4 temperatures have returned to the La Niña threshold.

WHY IT MATTERS

The developing subsurface warming supports the case for El Niño later in 2026, which could affect crop weather in major exporting regions. Current surface conditions do not yet point to an immediate price impact.

AFFECTSCorn Soybeans Wheat (SRW)Palm Oil

SOURCE
climateimpactcompany.comScott YuknisMar 1, 2026

Price reaction & history

Cornno directional readSO FAR1d -0.7%5d +2.0%20d +5.1%

After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.

Sep 10, 2020La Nina develops during peak hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration+5.5%
May 9, 2024El Nino and La Nina | Red River Farm Network+2.7%
Jan 9, 2025La Niña Emerges in Pacific Triggering Global Weather Changes - Bloomberg+4.1%
Apr 9, 2023El Niño could arrive at a dangerous time for the Pacific. Here's how local farmers are preparing - ABC News+1.8%
Jun 20, 2024NOAA Pacific Ocean Analytics Support Ideas of La Nina Holding Off Until Later in Summer-6.0%

Soybeansno directional readSO FAR1d -0.6%5d +2.4%20d +0.2%

After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

Sep 10, 2020La Nina develops during peak hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration+3.2%
May 9, 2024El Nino and La Nina | Red River Farm Network+0.1%
Jan 9, 2025La Niña Emerges in Pacific Triggering Global Weather Changes - Bloomberg+5.6%
Apr 9, 2023El Niño could arrive at a dangerous time for the Pacific. Here's how local farmers are preparing - ABC News+0.5%
Jun 20, 2024NOAA Pacific Ocean Analytics Support Ideas of La Nina Holding Off Until Later in Summer-1.0%

Wheat (SRW)no directional readSO FAR1d -0.9%5d +1.6%20d +0.1%

After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.

Sep 10, 2020La Nina develops during peak hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration+0.4%
May 9, 2024El Nino and La Nina | Red River Farm Network+2.0%
Jan 9, 2025La Niña Emerges in Pacific Triggering Global Weather Changes - Bloomberg+0.0%
Apr 9, 2023El Niño could arrive at a dangerous time for the Pacific. Here's how local farmers are preparing - ABC News-2.5%
Mar 8, 2020El Nino vs La Nina - an ill wind can bring positive results+6.0%

Palm Oilno directional readSO FAR1d +1.4%5d +5.0%20d +8.4%

After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

Apr 9, 2023El Niño could arrive at a dangerous time for the Pacific. Here's how local farmers are preparing - ABC News-2.1%
Mar 8, 2020El Nino vs La Nina - an ill wind can bring positive results-6.5%
May 31, 2018El Nino in the Forecast Part 1 | Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory-1.1%
Jan 3, 2019IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | December Climate Briefing: Atmosphere Resists El Niño Participation+1.1%
Nov 24, 2020Studying Association of El Nino / La Nina Cycle and Crop Yields — NASA Harvest+2.3%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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