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Feb 11, 2026REPORTGlobal

OPEC data indicate small Q2 surplus ahead of key OPEC+ decision on resuming oil output hikes

OPEC's monthly report forecasts world demand for OPEC+ crude at 42.20 million bpd in the second quarter, down from 42.60 million in the first quarter. The report points to a small Q2 surplus ahead of OPEC+ decisions on resuming output hikes.

WHY IT MATTERS

A projected surplus and lower crude demand is bearish for oil prices, which can ease energy costs across feed and freight.

AFFECTSCrude Oil (Brent)▼

SOURCE
reuters.comAlex LawlerFeb 11, 2026

Price reaction & history

Crude Oil (Brent)▼bearishSO FAR1d +0.8%5d -1.9%20d +27.1%

After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

Aug 31, 2018OPEC August oil output hits 2018 high despite Iran losses: Reuters survey | Reuters-1.7%
Aug 31, 2023OPEC oil output rises in August as Iran hits 2018 high, Reuters survey finds | Reuters+5.7%
Sep 29, 2017OPEC oil output rises by 50,000 bpd in September - Reuters survey-1.8%
Feb 29, 2024OPEC oil output rises by 90,000 bpd in February, survey finds | Reuters+1.0%
Nov 4, 2024OPEC oil output rises in October as Libyan supply rebounds, survey finds | Reuters+0.8%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Crude Oil (Brent) BRENT · GP ▸

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