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Fitch Ratings raised its 2026 price forecasts for ammonia to about $375/t from $300 and urea to about $420/t from $340, citing Hormuz disruption. It expects phosphate rock to stay near $150/t FOB Morocco.
Higher nitrogen fertilizer forecasts raise input costs for grain and forage production, while stable phosphate prices suggest Moroccan phosphate supply remains relatively insulated from Gulf disruption.
moroccoworldnews.comFirdaous NaimMar 16, 2026After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
