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The rand weakened on Monday at 17.185 per dollar as the Middle East war kept oil prices elevated. Brent was heading toward $115 a barrel after Houthi attacks on Israel widened the conflict.
Higher oil prices feed through to South African inflation and import costs, and a weaker rand raises the cost of imported feed inputs.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.