MUFG notes the US dollar index is at its highest since May 2025 as Middle East conflict fuels concerns of a prolonged energy price shock. Fed Chair Powell signaled a preference to hold rates steady and look through the energy shock, pulling US yields lower.
A firmer dollar amid energy shock concerns raises the cost of dollar-priced commodities for importers and may temper global demand if the shock persists.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.