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Early harvesting in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh is reporting higher yields than last year. Sown area has risen to 33.41 million hectares, and officials see possible output above 117.94 million tonnes.
A larger Indian crop and rising government and private stocks add to world wheat supply and point to softer export pressure on prices.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.