Australia is expected to harvest a second consecutive bumper wheat crop after widespread rain ahead of planting in April and May. Forecasts show above-average rainfall for New South Wales and South Australia over the next three months.
Cyclone Seroja damaged infrastructure in Western Australia but brought useful rain.
A large Australian wheat crop would add export supply and ease the tight global wheat supply that pushed prices to multi-year highs. Winter weather still carries risk for the crop.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.