
Bloomberg reports that strong European wheat harvests are keeping global food costs under control, with prices down to less than half of last year's record highs. The USDA has forecast record global wheat output for 2023-24 on the back of the European crop.
Analysts say the outlook depends on June weather because global reserves remain tight.
Large European supply and lower wheat prices reduce feed and food input costs for buyers, but tight reserves leave the market exposed to any weather shock. A poor June could reverse the current downward trend.
After 334 past bearish weather events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.