
OPEC+ agreed in principle to raise oil output by 206,000 barrels per day, according to five sources, after weighing options from 137,000 to 548,000 bpd. The increase comes as US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran's retaliation have disrupted Middle East shipments.
The increase is small relative to global demand, and spare capacity is limited while Hormuz flows are constrained, so it offers little near-term relief. Prices are still likely to be supported by the disruption, which keeps feed and fuel costs under pressure.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.