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Eight OPEC+ members agreed on September 7 to raise October crude production by 137,000 barrels per day, far smaller than the roughly 555,000 bpd monthly increases seen in August and September. The decision also begins unwinding a second 1.65 million bpd tranche of cuts more than a year early.
The smaller hike signals OPEC+ is prioritising market share but slowing supply growth, which tempers the bearish pressure from a larger surplus. Crude prices are likely to face downward pressure as the extra barrels arrive.
reuters.comAhmed Rasheed, Alex Lawler, Ahmad GhaddarSep 7, 2025After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
