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EUR/USD slipped below 1.1700 on April 30 as the euro corrected ahead of the ECB decision, hitting a low of 1.1655 after a high of 1.1849 on April 17. MUFG noted the euro had held up better than oil-price sensitivity suggested, falling only about 1% while Brent rose more than 70% since the conflict began.
MUFG forecasts 50 basis points of ECB hikes.
The euro's resilience despite a large oil rally suggests energy costs are not yet fully reflected in currency-driven feed import prices. A reversal in the euro would change the cost of US and Brazilian feed ingredients for European buyers.
fxstreet.comFXStreet Insights TeamApr 30, 2026After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
