U.S. Tariff Policy Aims to Curb Reliance on China As Soybean and Sorghum Risks Grow

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Aug 23, 2019China to impose extra tariffs on U.S. soy, beef and pork+0.0%
• Aug 27, 2019Sorghum, Soybean, and Cotton Paying Trade Tariff Bills -+0.3%
• Feb 15, 2018Sorghum takes hit as China retaliates for tariffs on solar panels+1.4%
• Jan 30, 2026China Turns to South America for Soybeans as U.S. Corn, Sorghum Exports Gain Momentum - RFD+3.7%
• Mar 9, 2018China says U.S. soybeans 'prime target' over tariffs: trade group-1.2%

After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Aug 23, 2019China to impose extra tariffs on U.S. soy, beef and pork-0.6%
• Aug 27, 2019Sorghum, Soybean, and Cotton Paying Trade Tariff Bills --1.7%
• Mar 2, 2019As trade war wears on, U.S. soybean farmers start to worry that China's demand won't return-1.4%
• Sep 30, 2026China's weak soybean demand dims prospects for US cargoes after tariff snub | Reuters-1.3%
• Apr 13, 2018China traders, farmers shrug off risk of US soybeans tariff | AP News-2.6%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.