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Westpac's quarterly agriculture report cuts its 2026 Australian farm GVA forecast to -0.8%, with the largest downgrade in crop production. It cites higher diesel, fertiliser and freight costs from the Middle East conflict, along with hotter, drier conditions linked to possible El Niño.
Westpac expects wheat prices to ease over 2026 while canola prices are revised higher.
Higher input costs may reduce planted area and yields, while global wheat supply weighs on prices. Stronger canola expectations point to firmer oilseed meal demand.
westpaciq.com.auSian Fenner, Justin SmirkApr 28, 2026After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
