
MUFG analysts say rising European yields reflect expectations that the ECB will deliver a 25bp hike on 11 June, with baseline inflation projections set to be revised higher. Markets have priced in one hike and nearly a second by September.
A firmer euro against the dollar lifts USD-denominated commodity import costs for Europe and can ease dollar-priced grain and oilseed demand pressure, while the currency effect on feed commodities is modest.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.