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The IEA's May oil market report warns that supply will fall 1.78 million barrels per day short of demand in 2026, reversing an earlier surplus. The agency says the market will stay undersupplied through the third quarter even if the conflict ends by early June, with the second-quarter deficit reaching about six million barrels per day.
A persistent deficit means crude and fuel costs are likely to stay high into the summer, which raises production, transport and fertilizer costs for feed buyers.
bairdmaritime.comReutersMay 13, 2026After 116 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.0% to +3.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 131 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.3% to +3.4%), and +2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
