
Expana raised its forecast for EU soft wheat and barley production in its May cereals report, to 128.8 million tonnes for soft wheat, still 6% below 2025. Better conditions in Romania, Bulgaria and Spain, plus returning rain in France and Germany, eased drought fears.
A larger EU wheat and barley crop adds export competition and weighs on feed grain prices. Maize was cut, which is mildly supportive for corn.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.