
The rupiah closed at 17,988 per dollar after an OECD projection that Indonesia's 2026 budget deficit could widen to the 3% of GDP fiscal ceiling. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated US inflation also weighed on the currency.
Currency weakness and fiscal concerns raise Indonesia's import costs for feed and fuel, and the Hormuz disruption keeps oil prices elevated.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.