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The ASX 200 closed higher after mixed May CPI kept an RBA rate rise in play for August, while the AUD fell to an 11-week low of US68.99 cents before recovering to US69.15 cents. Oil prices tracked their best close since the Iran war began, and US rate-hike bets lifted the greenback.
The AUD's weakness reflects stronger US dollar expectations, which makes Australian commodity exports cheaper in USD terms. Oil moves tied to the Iran war affect energy costs that feed into the broader inflation outlook.
afr.comMatt BellJun 23, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 54 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.8% to +2.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
