The Brazilian real weakened to about 5.19 per USD in late June as the dollar strengthened broadly after hawkish Fed projections. Markets began pricing more than one US rate hike this year.
The Selic at 14.25% remains well above US rates, but the gap is expected to narrow.
A weaker real lowers the dollar cost of Brazilian soybean and corn exports, which can pressure world prices for feed grains and meal.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.