◂ Event Timeline

Jun 8, 2026POLICYGlobal

OPEC+ output increase has little impact while Strait of Hormuz remains closed, says Rystad - OPEC+ output increase has little impact while Strait of Hormuz remains closed, says Rystad

Rystad Energy said OPEC+'s June 7 decision to add 188,000 bpd will have little immediate effect while the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Russia's new quota of about 9.82 million bpd exceeds its estimated May output of about 9.2 million bpd due to drone attacks and capacity declines.

Rystad warned that a full Hormuz reopening could create a surplus of up to 5 million bpd.

WHY IT MATTERS

Physical supply, not quota changes, is driving prices, so the increase has little effect on crude costs for feed buyers. A sudden reopening of Hormuz could sharply lower energy prices later.

AFFECTSWTI◆BRENT◆

SOURCE
petromindo.comJun 8, 2026

Price reaction & history

WTI◆neutralSO FAR1d +0.8%5d -6.1%20d -25.6%

After 187 past neutral policy events, WTI moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.

Aug 31, 2021Opec to remain flexible even as it plans for possible output increase | The National-1.2%
Jun 7, 2026OPEC+ approves fourth oil output quota hike since Hormuz closure-6.1%
Oct 3, 2024OPEC+ still has an Asia dilemma as crude imports remain soft+4.4%
Aug 27, 2021OPEC stays the course on output hikes as oil prices rebound+3.9%
Dec 2, 2021Oil prices: OPEC and Russia stick with plans to increase oil output in January | CNN Business+10.6%

BRENT◆neutralSO FAR1d +0.7%5d -7.5%20d -26.2%

After 175 past neutral policy events, BRENT moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.

Aug 31, 2021Opec to remain flexible even as it plans for possible output increase | The National-0.4%
Jun 7, 2026OPEC+ approves fourth oil output quota hike since Hormuz closure-7.5%
Aug 27, 2021OPEC stays the course on output hikes as oil prices rebound+3.6%
Dec 2, 2021Oil prices: OPEC and Russia stick with plans to increase oil output in January | CNN Business+9.7%
Apr 21, 2019Russia Remains Undecided on OPEC Output Deal | Egypt Oil & Gas+0.4%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

WTI · GP ▸

——— · ·

BRENT · GP ▸

——— · ·

Loading…