
OPEC and Russia confirmed plans to increase January output by 400,000 barrels per day. Analysts had expected a pause given the recent price fall and uncertainty over pandemic-driven demand.
Brent and US crude turned negative on the announcement before recovering to trade about 1% higher near $69 and $66 a barrel.
The decision removed the possibility of a pause that many traders had priced in, so the net price impact was limited. Crude remains the key energy driver for biofuel and diesel costs.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.