
OPEC+ members have agreed in principle to keep their December oil output targets unchanged, according to three sources, at a Sunday online meeting of seven core members. The group completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd cut in September, and most members are still pumping below their targets because of Iran war disruptions to Gulf exports.
A hold on targets removes near-term supply-policy changes, so prices stay driven by the Gulf export disruption. Actual Gulf output remains constrained below quotas, which keeps the market tight.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.