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Argus expects urea prices to stay near about US$400/t after falling from highs near $900/t, as Chinese exports return and Middle Eastern stockpiles are released through Hormuz. Argus forecasts 6.5 million tonnes of Chinese exports in 2026, up from 4.6 million last year.
Returning Chinese and Gulf supply has balanced the urea market, so prices are likely to stay flat until demand recovers around September or October.
producer.comSean PrattJul 17, 2026After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
