
Dry weather from a strengthening El Niño is hurting rice crops across Asia, including Vietnam, and India's monsoon is about a sixth below normal. Thai rice prices touched an 18-month high and Chicago rough rice futures are up about 40% this year.
Lower Asian rice harvests and a weak Indian monsoon tighten the global rice supply and support prices. Higher rice prices may also push buyers toward feed grains.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.