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ABARES forecasts Australia's 2026-27 winter crop at 60.9Mt, the fourth largest on record and 16% above the ten-year average. Barley and canola are tracking well above average, while northern NSW and Queensland are weaker.
Frost and a softer summer crop outlook remain risks.
A large Australian barley and wheat crop adds supply to export markets, which pressures feed grain prices, although frost could cut the crop.
episode3.netAndrew WhitelawAug 31, 2026After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
