
Urea prices are recovering as grain price gains and firmer cropping margins lift fertiliser demand. India is returning to the market needing 1.7 million tonnes before December 1, and Australian distributors have run down spare urea stocks.
Suppliers are warning buyers against loose verbal bookings for next season.
Stronger demand from India and better grain margins are tightening urea supply, pointing to higher nitrogen costs for buyers. Freight and Middle East route disruptions add further upward pressure on delivered prices.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.