Loading…
Australian urea prices rose about $50/t over the previous fortnight, with the FOB Middle East value up from $350/t to $390/t since mid-February. Rabobank attributed the rise mainly to farmers shifting from just-in-time to just-in-case buying amid trade uncertainty, with a weaker Australian dollar and possible demand from India and the US as further factors.
Australian stocks from strong 2019 imports may still be unsold.
A shift to precautionary buying lifts near-term urea demand and prices, and a weaker Australian dollar raises the local cost of imports. Carry-over stocks in Australia could limit how far the rally runs.
farmonline.com.auGregor HeardMar 12, 2020After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
